Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model

Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo; Edet Joseph Archibong; Nsikak John Affia

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14

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Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model

Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo, Edet Joseph Archibong, Nsikak John Affia

Published in International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering (Volume 6, Issue 3)

Received: 3 January 2017 Accepted: 18 January 2017 Published: 27 June 2017

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Abstract

In this paper time series modeling and forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria is presented. Specifically, Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model, (AR) are used. The data used are obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin for industrial electricity consumption ranging from 1979 – 2014. The results shows that Harvey Model has (r²) = 80.1% and RMSE = 65.2513 whereas Autoregressive Model has (r²) = 50.1% and RMSE = 71.3985. Obviously, Harvey model has better prediction accuracy than the AR model. The Harvey model was then used to forecast industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria for the next 15 years (from 2015 to 2029). According to the forecast result by the year 2029 the industrial consumption of Nigeria will stand at 539.65 MW/h as against 468.18 MW/h in 2015.

Published in	International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering (Volume 6, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14
Page(s)	40-46
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2017. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Time Series Analysis, Industrial Electricity Consumption, Forecasting, Harvey Model, Autoregressive Model

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APA Style

Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo, Edet Joseph Archibong, Nsikak John Affia. (2017). Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model. International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, 6(3), 40-46. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14

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ACS Style

Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo; Edet Joseph Archibong; Nsikak John Affia. Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model. Int. J. Energy Power Eng. 2017, 6(3), 40-46. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14

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AMA Style

Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo, Edet Joseph Archibong, Nsikak John Affia. Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model. Int J Energy Power Eng. 2017;6(3):40-46. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14

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@article{10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14,
  author = {Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo and Edet Joseph Archibong and Nsikak John Affia},
  title = {Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model},
  journal = {International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering},
  volume = {6},
  number = {3},
  pages = {40-46},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijepe.20170603.14},
  abstract = {In this paper time series modeling and forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria is presented. Specifically, Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model, (AR) are used. The data used are obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin for industrial electricity consumption ranging from 1979 – 2014. The results shows that Harvey Model has (r2) = 80.1% and RMSE = 65.2513 whereas Autoregressive Model has (r2) = 50.1% and RMSE = 71.3985. Obviously, Harvey model has better prediction accuracy than the AR model. The Harvey model was then used to forecast industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria for the next 15 years (from 2015 to 2029). According to the forecast result by the year 2029 the industrial consumption of Nigeria will stand at 539.65 MW/h as against 468.18 MW/h in 2015.},
 year = {2017}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model
AU  - Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo
AU  - Edet Joseph Archibong
AU  - Nsikak John Affia
Y1  - 2017/06/27
PY  - 2017
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14
T2  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
JF  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
JO  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
SP  - 40
EP  - 46
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-960X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14
AB  - In this paper time series modeling and forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria is presented. Specifically, Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model, (AR) are used. The data used are obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin for industrial electricity consumption ranging from 1979 – 2014. The results shows that Harvey Model has (r2) = 80.1% and RMSE = 65.2513 whereas Autoregressive Model has (r2) = 50.1% and RMSE = 71.3985. Obviously, Harvey model has better prediction accuracy than the AR model. The Harvey model was then used to forecast industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria for the next 15 years (from 2015 to 2029). According to the forecast result by the year 2029 the industrial consumption of Nigeria will stand at 539.65 MW/h as against 468.18 MW/h in 2015.
VL  - 6
IS  - 3
ER  -

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Author Information

Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo

Department of Electrical/Electronic and Computer Engineering, University of Uyo, Nigeria
Edet Joseph Archibong

Department of Physic, University of Uyo, Uyo, Nigeria
Nsikak John Affia

Department of Electrical/Electronic Engineering, Akwa Ibom State Polytechnic, Ikot Osura Ikot Ekpene, Nigeria

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo, Edet Joseph Archibong, Nsikak John Affia. (2017). Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model. International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, 6(3), 40-46. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14

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ACS Style

Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo; Edet Joseph Archibong; Nsikak John Affia. Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model. Int. J. Energy Power Eng. 2017, 6(3), 40-46. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14

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AMA Style

Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo, Edet Joseph Archibong, Nsikak John Affia. Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model. Int J Energy Power Eng. 2017;6(3):40-46. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14,
  author = {Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo and Edet Joseph Archibong and Nsikak John Affia},
  title = {Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model},
  journal = {International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering},
  volume = {6},
  number = {3},
  pages = {40-46},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijepe.20170603.14},
  abstract = {In this paper time series modeling and forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria is presented. Specifically, Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model, (AR) are used. The data used are obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin for industrial electricity consumption ranging from 1979 – 2014. The results shows that Harvey Model has (r2) = 80.1% and RMSE = 65.2513 whereas Autoregressive Model has (r2) = 50.1% and RMSE = 71.3985. Obviously, Harvey model has better prediction accuracy than the AR model. The Harvey model was then used to forecast industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria for the next 15 years (from 2015 to 2029). According to the forecast result by the year 2029 the industrial consumption of Nigeria will stand at 539.65 MW/h as against 468.18 MW/h in 2015.},
 year = {2017}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model
AU  - Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo
AU  - Edet Joseph Archibong
AU  - Nsikak John Affia
Y1  - 2017/06/27
PY  - 2017
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14
T2  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
JF  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
JO  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
SP  - 40
EP  - 46
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-960X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14
AB  - In this paper time series modeling and forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria is presented. Specifically, Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model, (AR) are used. The data used are obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin for industrial electricity consumption ranging from 1979 – 2014. The results shows that Harvey Model has (r2) = 80.1% and RMSE = 65.2513 whereas Autoregressive Model has (r2) = 50.1% and RMSE = 71.3985. Obviously, Harvey model has better prediction accuracy than the AR model. The Harvey model was then used to forecast industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria for the next 15 years (from 2015 to 2029). According to the forecast result by the year 2029 the industrial consumption of Nigeria will stand at 539.65 MW/h as against 468.18 MW/h in 2015.
VL  - 6
IS  - 3
ER  -

Copy | Download